In what will perhaps be the most entertaining card of the year so far, UFC 158 in Montreal will feature a stacked welterweight lineup. Headlining it will be UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre and contender Nick Diaz. This has been a long awaited matchup and the bad blood between them will finally be resolved as they enter the octagon on Saturday, March 16th.
The week has proven to be an exciting one leading up to the fight. Nick Diaz has done his best to spark controversy, and for the first time Georges St. Pierre seems legitimately frustrated. Nick started it all on the conference call, where he took some hits at George on the phone. He then missed the open workouts, and followed that up with an interesting showing at the pre-fight press conference. George was clearly not in a good mood, most likely because of Diaz. For the first time he mentioned how tired he was of doing media, answering the same questions, and dealing with problems that aren’t related to the fight. Will this have an influence on his performance? It just might.
Two other very interesting matchups in the welterweight division will take place. Johny Hendricks, who some call the real #1 contender, will take on Carlos Condit in what is sure to be a war. The fighters were both told the winner will get a crack at the belt. Johnny has been waiting a long time for the shot, and Carlos wants a chance at redemption. Jake Ellenberger will take on Nate Marquardt, both looking to move up in the ranks.
Predictions
GSP vs Nick Diaz
George St. Pierre vs Nick Diaz is a very interesting matchup. George will be looking to work the leg kicks and quick jab of his. If this fails he always has the go-to takedown. Diaz tends to taunt his opponent, and this may get him into trouble early on as we have all seen what Georges jab can do (Koscheck). Diaz will be looking to outpace George and bring him into the later rounds where the hope is that he will tire him. It may be possible, as St. Pierre started looking tired towards the end of the Condit fight. If Diaz can do this, the only way I can see him winning this fight is if he can find a submission. If George is fighting with too much emotion, he may tire easier than normal. He is just too smart to let that happen though. I do believe he will try to stand with Diaz, but the thing is, the moment he gets in any kind of trouble he will go for the takedown and shouldn’t have too much of a problem getting it. We’ve seen this time and time again with St. Pierre.
Nick presents some interesting challenges for Georges with his boxing, submission game, and cardio.
He has a shot but I don’t think he’ll get the job done.
Go with what I believe is a fairly safe bet and take GSP by decision at -485(Bookmaker). If you’re loving Diaz and think he may have a shot, make a small play on Diaz by sub at +877(5Dimes). It’s very possible he pulls off a submission.
Johny Hendricks vs Carlos Condit
Johny Hendricks vs Carlos Condit is a good candidate for fight of the night. These guys come to fight, both have power, and both have granite chins. Neither of these fighters have been knocked out. I expect Carlos to feel out the fight early on and let Hendricks do the attacking. He’s excellent up against the cage and will look for alot of kicks as Hendricks is much shorter than him. Hendricks will clearly be looking for his powerful left hand. As solid as it is, I just can’t see him putting away Condit. Condit has too much length on him, and if Johny does get inside Carlos can take a shot. I expect Carlos to use his technical striking, along with his reach to keep Johnny at a distance and pick him apart.
Quite frankly, I’m surprised Condit is the underdog, even if it is by a small margin. I would definitely play a bet on Condit winning at +120(BetOnline). A good prop in this one is Condit by TKO/KO at +780 (BetOnline).
Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt
Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt is another good matchup in the welterweight division. Nate the great in my mind is a bipolar fighter. Sometimes he looks like one of the best in the world, and at other times he doesn’t look like a top 10 guy. In his most recent fight his leg was brutalized by leg kicks against Tarec Saffiedine. He just kept taking kicks until he couldn’t walk and lost a decision and the strikeforce welterweight title. The fight before that he destroyed the then undefeated Tyron Woodley. A big question will be, which Nate will show up? Jake Is coming off a win against Hieron and really has looked good in all his fights. He was dominating Kampmann until he got caught with a couple knees and went down.
Now MMA math doesn’t always work, but these two have a common opponent in Kampmann. Nate destroyed Kampmann, Jake was destroying Kampmann, but couldn’t finish. Jake can get too wild, and tire, and that is where I see his downfall in this fight. Nate is too good in the clinch for Jake, and will be looking to feed him some elbows in close. I can see Nate getting past Ellenberger’s heavy hands and finding the finish.
Take Nate Marquardt by TKO/KO at +675(BetOnline).
Written by: Chris Enouy
Carlos Condit • Georges St Pierre • Jake Ellenberger • Johny Hendricks • Nate Marquardt • Nick Diaz • ufc