The UFC 174 lineup includes a Flyweight title fight between Johnson and Bagautinov and a huge Welterweight fight between #2 ranked Rory MacDonald and #3 ranked Tyron Woodley. These two fights are good enough to make me want to see this card. I personally am especially excited to see MacDonald fight Woodley in front of his home crowd in Vancouver, BC.
Last weekend the UFC Fight Night 42 card turned out alright for me. Henderson was able to finish Khabilov in the fourth round, so my Henderson by decision bet didn’t pay out and I also lost my underdog pick on Moraga to win. But Sanchez did pull out a nice +160 victory on a controversial decision over Pearson to salvage the card for me.
2014 Record: 27-11 for +19.55 units.
Demetrious Johnson vs Ali Bagautinov
Demetrious Johnson is in another class in the Flyweight division. He has proven his ability with big wins over John Dodson, Joseph Benavidez twice and John Moraga a couple fights ago. Ever since the UFC introduced the Flyweight division Johnson has been on top and I don’t see that changing this weekend. Bagautinov is a strong fighter, but he hasn’t beat anyone near the level of Demetrious Johnson. His two biggest wins in the UFC were decision victories over John Lineker and Tim Elliott who are currently ranked #7 and #9 in the Flyweight division respectively. Bagautinov himself is only ranked as the #4 contender and he is only getting this title shot because everyone in front of him has recently been beat by Demetrious Johnson, with Benavidez and McCall each fighting him twice. I expect this fight could go into the fourth or fifth round, but I expect a finish from Johnson. He has finished his last two fights and I like that trend to continue.
Take Demetrious Johnson inside distance +170 @ 5Dimes.
Rory MacDonald vs Tyron Woodley
I was shocked when Rory MacDonald wasn’t the favourite in this fight. He is fighting at home in front of his friends and family and I think he’s learned his lesson from his loss to Lawler at UFC 167. Against Lawler, Rory didn’t look like himself and he still lost just a split decision against a guy who almost beat Johny Hendricks for the title and then absolutely crushed Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173. Woodley on the other hand did beat Carlos Condit and he controlled that fight before the Condit injury, but he does have fairly recent losses to both Jake Shields and Nate Marquardt in his last 5 fights. He is a very dangerous fighter, but I think if Rory can get past the first wave and not get caught with a knockout that he will become the better fighter in the second and third rounds and find a way to win this fight.
Take Rory MacDonald +122 @ BetOnline.
Ryan Bader vs Rafael Cavalcante
I personally am just not a big fan of Ryan Bader. I think he’s overrated and past his prime. He has got fights against strong opponents, but he has lost these fights to Teixeira, Machida, Jones and he even lost to Tito Ortiz which was a huge surprise back in 2011 because it was Ortiz’s only win in a 9 fight span. I’m just not a believer and I think that Cavalcante will find a way to win this fight as the small underdog.
Take Rafael Cavalcante +125 @ 5Dimes.
Andrei Arlovski vs Brendan Schaub
This is an interesting heavyweight tilt. Arlovski is back in the UFC for the first time since 2008. He has done well in the WSOF, with his only loss coming to Anthony Johnson who proved he is no joke when he beat Phil Davis a few weeks back. That said I still like Brendan Schaub to win this fight. He has amazing jujitsu and is currently back on track with a two fight win streak. He’s really only had the two fight slip up since joining the UFC and I like him to get to the top of the heavyweight division in his next few fights.
Take Brendan Schaub -1435
Ryan Jimmo vs Ovince St. Preux
St. Preux is a great fighter as well who I see making a jump up the rankings very soon. He is on a 3 fight winning streak in the UFC and his only loss since 2009 came against Gegard Mousasi who has proven himself to be on of the better fighters in the UFC already. Ryan Jimmo is no cake walk fight either, but both times he has fought higher end competition in James Te-Huna and Jimi Manua he has not been able to win.
Take St. Preux -140 @ BetOnline.
There is a full main card of predictions for you guys, which is something I don’t normally do.
Off topic a bit here, but anyone who also bets on basketball I really like the Miami Heat to win the series. I just don’t think they can be beat at home, so I’m now expecting the Heat to win the series in 6 after getting that road win in game 2.