This fight is finally here. Ever since the brawl broke out at the promo event for UFC 178 back in September. Things somewhat cooled down after Jones had to postpone the fight due to an injury in training, but I’m sure things will get heated again these next several days as the build up to the fight takes center stage once again.
The remainder of the card isn’t that strong, probably because this is one of the most looked anticipated events in recent UFC history so they didn’t have to build up the card around it. That said, the Donald Cerrone vs Myles Jury fight is also interesting and I’ll be giving my tip for that fight below.
The Brad Tavares vs Nate Marquardt fight also has some significance in the Middleweight division, while Horiguchi and Gaudinot are ranked just inside the top 15 in the Flyweight division. Hector Lombard is also fighting, but he seems to already be looking past Josh Burkman, so that will be an interesting fight.
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
I took both Machida and Barao as big favourites in the last Fight Night card, which won me another 2 units for the year. That closes out 2014. I’m up 17.31 units, which means if I bet $100 on each fight I would be $1731. My betting amount varies depending how confident I am on the fights, but I would say I’m up $1500 from MMA betting last year, which is a decent amount. Now time to make 2015 just as successful.
Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier
It’s hard not to let my personal preference creep into how I see this fight playing out. I’m not a fan of Jon Jones, but that doesn’t mean I’ve ever thought he was going to get beaten before. With DC I legitimately think there is a reasonable chance that Jones loses this fight.
Cormier is hands down the best wrestler in the division and maybe in the UFC. If he can avoid standing up too much with Jones I like his chances on the mat. Jones is known as having both very strong and unpredictable stand up, as well as some great BJJ on the mat. I think Cormier is compact and strong enough though to give the long Jones trouble if he does get him to the mat.
The issue I see is that I don’t see Cormier finishing Jones, so he will likely have to win a 5 round decision. He could win by ground and pound, but I don’t see it. Cormier has only ever been in one 5 round fight in his career. It was a 5 round decision win over Josh Barnett in Strikeforce. That isn’t the best example either because Barnett isn’t known for his stamina. It will be interesting to see how Cormier performs if the fight goes to the Championship Rounds.
All of that said, based on the odds my money is on Daniel Cormier to shock the champ in this one.
Play: Cormier +160 @ 5Dimes
Myles Jury vs Donald Cerrone
This is a very interesting fight between two explosive strikers who can finish fights both with one punch/kick power and also finish up with submissions after hurting their opponents. Jury has beat some names in the UFC, with his last win over Takanori Gomi and also a decision win over Diego Sanchez in his last two fights, but both these guys were past the prime of their careers. That said, Diego Sanchez especially is still a very good fighter and Jury beat him easily.
Cerrone is going to be a huge step up for Jury in his UFC career though. Cerrone has already won 4 fights in 2014, with his last win over Eddie Alvarez showing that he can beat one of the most hyped guys in the sport. He had Alvarez completely crumpled from leg kicks to where Alvarez could barely stand by the end of the fight. Before that fight, Cerrone finished Jim Miller, Edson Barboza, Adriano Martins and Evan Dunham all within the last 15 months. When you look at Cerrone’s record for really his entire career he has only lost to fighters who are the very top of the division. He has two losses to Benson Henderson, one to Nate Diaz back when Diaz was at the top of his game in 2011, 1 to Anthony Pettis the current champ and 1 to Rafael dos Anjos who is now the #1 contender. In that span he has 16 victories over other top end guys that the UFC and Strikeforce put in front of him. Simply put, Cerrone does not lose to guys who are not at the very elite end of the sport.
Is Myles Jury elite? We will find out, but my money is on his not being able to get a win over Cerrone. If he does that shoots him right up into the top contender status.
Play: Cerrone -190 @ BetOnline
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