Last weekend we had UFC Fight Night Japan with Barnett vs Nelson headlining. There really weren’t that many high profile fights on the card so I just went with a couple of picks from the main and co-main events. Unfortunately I went 0-2 as Nelson wasn’t able to get inside to finish Barnett and Mousasi was stopped by Hall. Here’s hoping I do a bit better with my picks for UFC 192 this Saturday.
My DraftKings lineups didn’t fare any better. That said, I feel like I have a better read on a lot of this cards fights so I’m optimistic about my chances to hit a big lineup at DraftKings.com this weekend.
Click here to enter a lineup at DraftKings.com….
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 27-31 for -12.35 units.
Daniel Cormier vs Alexander Gustafsson
This is an interesting fight and one that I really don’t feel like I have a great handle on how it’s going to play out. Yes, Gustafsson was stopped by Anthony Johnson in his last fight, but he was still given this title fight which many MMA fans found ridiculous. However, we have to look past that and really consider how Gustafsson matches up with Cormier. In one way I think he could match up well because his height advantage will be similar to the height advantage Jon Jones had over Cormier in their title fight. But then I think about that fight and I remember that even when Cormier was getting inside Jones was overpowering him and outwrestling him. Jones didn’t allow Cormier inside often, but they did clinch quite a bit and Jones was too strong. I just don’t think that Gustafsson will have the same skill that Jones had to basically beat Cormier where he wanted to take the fight.
I see Cormier out grinding Gustafsson in this one. When I consider Gustafsson finishing Cormier I just can’t see it. And I can’t see Cormier not getting the better of Gus in a points battle.
I could definitely see this one going all five rounds because Gus is one tough fighter, but if Cormier comes into the fight in good shape I see him taking it.
Play: Cormier -310 @ BetOnline.ag
Tyron Woodley vs Johny Hendricks
I actually feel bad for Johny Hendricks, but then I realize he kind of did this to himself. I thought he won his last title fight against Robbie Lawler, and then after talk of a trilogy fight, which I wasn’t for by the way, he has had to beat Matt Brown and now he will have to beat Tyron Woodley. And I still think it will take a KO for him to get a title shot over Bader/Evans. He has the ability to knock people out, but he hasn’t had a finish since 2012. That’s not the way you get back to the title.
Hendricks will out point Woodley in this fight and I’m hoping he brings his game to the next level and goes for that finish because I think people are tired of him getting decision wins. Just look at Condit, who has lost 3 of his last 5 fights earned his title shot. He comes out and finishes a mid-level guy and all of a sudden he has a title shot. Sometimes I think it pays to have these long injury lay-offs because you come back, have one good fight and you’re in the title. But that’s a discussion for another day.
Play: Hendricks -300 @ BetOnline.ag
Ryan Bader vs Rashad Evans
If Evans is able to beat Bader here I think the UFC will really consider giving him a title shot. And that’s even though he hasn’t fought since beating an old washed up Chael Sonnen in 2013. It’s just the way the UFC works. That said, I do like Rashad to win this fight and I think he actually might be a top 3 fighter in the division, but that doesn’t mean he should come back from a 2 year injury, win one fight and get a title shot. But just watch. If he performs against Bader, and I expect him to, I would not be surprised in the least if he is fighting Lawler for the title next year.
Play: Evans -160 @ BetOnline.ag
Shawn Jordan vs Ruslan Magomedov
Jordan is a very exciting fighter. He gets knockouts and that’s why he’s on the main card here. His last 7 UFC fights have been finished by either KO or TKO and he is 5-2 in that span. He is up against a Russian fighter (lots of Russians on this card) that has a couple decision wins in the UFC and has actually won his last 5 fights via decision. One of these streaks has to give and I like Shawn Jordan to hand Ruslan the second loss of his career.
Play: Jordan +135 @ BetOnline.ag
Jessica Eye vs Julianna Pena
Julianna Pena is the real deal. I watched her season of The Ultimate Fighter, which she won, and she just looked like a wrecking ball out there. She had an injury coming out of the show, so she was sidelined for a couple years, but after a quick TKO win in her first fight back from injury in April she is looking to climb the ranks quickly. A win over Jessica Eye, who is ranked #6 in the division, would do just that. Eye was actually outstruck by Miesha Tate in her last fight, which was not supposed to happen as Eye is supposed to have some of the best boxing in the division. I think she will be outstruck once again, but by a much wider margin in this one. I’m actually expecting a finish from Pena here, which could vault her right up to contender and a possible Rousey fight in the near future.
Play: Pena -235 @ BetOnline.ag
So that’s how I think the 5 main card fights will go. I know, I only took one underdog, but that’s the way she goes sometimes. Good luck with your bets guys!
Alexander Gustafsson • Daniel Cormier • UFC 192