First off, I’m sorry I didn’t add any posts this last month. I was focused primarily on my main site SportsBettingCanadian.ca, which put BetOnMMA.org on the back burner a little bit for the month of August. I’m going to try to get back to adding my picks for all of the UFC events here moving forward.
This week the UFC is headed to Hamburg, Germany for a Fight Night card that really features 3 big fights. Arlovski vs Barnett is the main event, while Gustafsson vs Blachowicz and Bader vs Latifi are the other big fights with ranked fighters that are right on the door step of either getting back to a title shot or becoming a legitimate contender.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Andrei Arlovski vs Josh Barnett
Yes, Arlovski was on a 6 fight winning streak in the UFC before his last two knockout losses. And yes, those losses were to legitimate fighters who are now fighting for the belt next week. That said, I still think Arlovski was severely over hyped from his winning streak. He beat two no names outside of the UFC and then won a split decision over Brendan Schaub who everyone else was knocking out. His three most recent wins came over Antonio Silva, Travis Browne and Frank Mir. Yes, they’re big names, but they’re by no means top fighters in the UFC anymore.
Barnett on the other hand took a couple years off, came back and beat Roy Nelson and then lost via gogo choke to Ben Rothwell, who I think is one of the top fighters in the heavyweight division. Barnett should be able to impose his will against Arlovski in this fight by closing the distance and putting Arlovski into positions where he’s unable to unleash his one punch KO power. Unless Arlovski can get off a bomb early in this fight, which is definitely possible, this is Barnett’s fight to lose.
Play: Josh Barnett -155
Jan Blachowicz vs Alexander Gustafsson
This is without a doubt a tune up fight for Gustafsson to get him back in the win column before putting him up against on of the big three in the Light Heavyweight division once again (Jones, Cormier or Johnson). He lost to each of these men, but he was in very close fights with both Jones and Cormier, while Johnson put his lights out early (no shame in that).
Blachowicz simply is not on the same level as Gustafsson. He’s coming off a win over no-name Igor Pokrajac and lost his two fights previous to Corey Anderson and Jimi Manuwa, neither of whom are top fighters. This should be a relatively easy fight for Gustafsson and I’m excited to see what the promotion has planned for him after he gets this win.
Play: Alex Gustafsson -675
Ryan Bader vs Iliar Latifi
Here’s my underdog pick for the three big fights on the card. I think Ilir Latifi has the perfect style to beat Ryan Bader. Latifi has yet to be taken down in his UFC career, which spans 7 fights and if this fight stays standing it gives Latifi a great chance to land a knockout bomb on Bader, who could still be reeling from the vicious KO he suffered at the hands of Anthony Johnson back in January. Latifi has a very low base and short arms that can unleash big power close to the body, which is very dangerous for a wrestler like Bader.
At these odds I think the smart money has to be on the stocky Swede to pull off the upset in Europe.
Play: Ilir Latifi +200
Other Picks
- Peter Sobotta -110
- Scott Askham -115
- Rustam Khabilov -350
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