UFC Fight Night Japan: Barnett vs Nelson Main Card Betting Picks

UFC JapanIt’s been a month since I’ve got a post up here at the site and there are two reasons for that.  #1 the UFC has not been busy of late.  We have had two weeks off after UFC 191 and before that there was a week in between the last Fight Night card and UFC 191.  #2 is that I didn’t get a post up for UFC 191 and that’s because I was moving that weekend, but now I am all settled into my new house and excited for the UFC to heat up once again to end the year.

This is a card that I’m not overly excited about.  The Nelson vs Barnett should be fun to watch and the Mousasi vs Hall fight does have some implications on the Middleweight division, but once you get past the Flyweight fight between Horiguchi and Camus, there really aren’t a lot of relevant fighters on this card.  We have a lot of Japanese fighters that I haven’t heard of.

Luckily for me I’m setting some DraftKings.com lineups for this card, which gives me enough reason to get excited about the first 7 fights on this card before we get in the real meat of the main card.  Hopefully I have some lineups still in contention once Mousasi and Hall take the cage.

Click here to enter a lineup at DraftKings.com…

2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 27-29 for -7.10 units.

Josh Barnett vs Roy Nelson

Barnett is a fairly big favourite heading into this fight.  BetOnline.ag has Nelson at +220, while Barnett is -260 to win the fight.  I actually like Nelson in this fight and I’ll tell you why.  People forget that Nelson is a high level jiu jitsu fighter.  Of the first 6 wins in his MMA career he had 5 submission victories and 1 split decision.  After a loss in his next fight he earned a TKO and it seems like he really took to punching people in the face and he hasn’t looked  back since.  Every single one of his wins in the UFC have been via TKO or knockout.  This has caused people to forget that he actually has a very good jiu jitsu base.

It’s because of Roy Nelson’s ability on the ground that I don’t think Barnett will be able to get one of his submission wins in this fight.  I also don’t see Barnett knocking out Nelson because it takes a special kind of Mark Hunt power to put Roy’s lights out.  This gives Nelson five rounds to try to put the finishing touches on Barnett who is coming off a KO loss to Travis Browne.  Barnett hasn’t fought MMA in almost two years and I just don’t expect him to be the same level fighter that he was in Strikeforce.

Play: Nelson +220 @ BetOnline.ag

Gegard Mousasi vs Uriah Hall

Mousasi is coming into this fight as a -425 favourite and rightfully so.  Gegard is ranked #6 in the UFC Middleweight division and he’s trying to work his way back up to contender status after a loss to Jacare Souza a year ago.  He’s put two wins together already this year and a win over Hall here should put his name back into some top contender fights.

Hall has a ton of talent, but he hasn’t been able to put it together against quality opposition in the UFC.  He’s been dummying new UFC fighters, but now he will finally get a shot at a high ranked guy.  I expect him to be in over his head.  He has 3 split decision losses in the UFC, but this will be the first loss that he can’t complain about.

Play: Mousasi -425 @ BetOnline.ag

Those are the only two fights that really have me interested this event, so I’m going to quit right there while I’m ahead.  Good luck with your bets!

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