It’s been three whole weeks without a UFC card, which is almost unheard of in this day and age of the UFC. I have to admit the first couple weeks were a nice break from having an event to watch every weekend, but once week 3 rolled around I was counting the days until the next event.
This weekend the UFC is back with a Fight Night card in Mexico City. The headlining fight is a massive Lightweight tilt between Rafael Dos Anjos, who just lost the belt to Eddie Alvarez, and perennial contender Tony Ferguson who is riding a 7 fight winning streak over big names, but has yet to get a title shot. Also on the main card is Marcin Held coming over from Bellator for his UFC debut against Diego Sanchez, Ricardo Lamas and Charles Oliveira in a big featherweight fight and Beneil Dariush taking on Rashid Magomedov in a Lightweight fight featuring a couple up and coming underrated fighters in the division.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Tony Ferguson
Dos Anjos was a very impressive champion at Lightweight, and I think he beats Eddie Alvarez 8 times out of 10, but it wasn’t his day against Alvarez in his last title defense. After pushing the pace for the first few minutes, Dos Anjos was caught with a big right hand that dazed the fighter and then gave up too many power shots forcing the fight to be stopped. I’m concerned about Dos Anjos moving forward. He’s a battle tested fighter and losing by TKO like that can sometimes affect your abilities moving forward. Add in all of the rumours about Dos Anjos being on PED’s for his impressive performance against Anthony Pettis and you have to wonder what Dos Anjos will show up for this fight.
I think Tony Ferguson is a very tough match up for Dos Anjos. Ferguson is a very unique fighter with a lot of movement who attacks from all sorts of angles. He’s the same age as Dos Anjos, but has been in fewer wars in his career and I just think he looks like the fresher fighter at this point in time. I expect Ferguson to frustrate Dos Anjos with his movement and pace, which might be the only higher pace in the division than Dos Anjos. I also don’t think Dos Anjos will want to take Ferguson down due to his submission skills, so I think this fight will stay standing and Ferguson will outpoint Dos Anjos on his way to a win in a very exciting fight.
Play: Ferguson +120
Diego Sanchez vs Marcin Held
Held is coming over from Bellator after being with the company for 13 fights in his most recent stint. He was 11-2 in that span and his most recent loss was to Will Brooks, who is considered one of the best Lightweight’s in the world. And let’s not forget Held is only 24 years old, so his best days should be in front of him.
I expect Held to have no trouble with Diego Sanchez, who has continued to decline over the past five years, culminating in a quick TKO at the hands of Joe Lauzon at UFC 200. This is the beginning of the end for Sanchez and just the beginning of a great career in the UFC for Held.
Play: Held -260
Charles Oliveira vs Ricardo Lamas
I think people have begun to overlook Ricardo Lamas because he’s been unable to beat the top guys in the division. I advise against thinking this way because Lamas is the #4 ranked guy for a reason, and although he may simply be a gatekeeper for the Featherweight Division nowadays, he has a tremendous amount of experience against top ranked fighters and always comes to fight. He’s 7-3 in his last 10 fights, with the losses coming to Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes and Max Holloway, who are each the who’s who of the Featherweight Division.
Oliveira is a great fighter, but I think he lacks the toughness to really take that next step up the Featherweight ladder. After beating Pettis in the beginning of their fight he ended up giving up his neck in the third. He does have impressive wins over guys like Myles Jury, Nik Lentz, and Jeremy Stephens, but I’m skeptical about whether or not he can take that next step.
Play: Lamas +100
Beneil Dariush vs Rashid Magomedov
These are two guys who have been rising the Lightweight ladder over the past few years. Dariush had a little hiccup when he gave up his back to Chiesa a couple fights ago back in April, but he’s 6-1 in his last 7 including wins over Jim Miller, Michael Johnson and most recently a KO of James Vick.
Magomedov is another guy climbing the ranks with 4 straight wins in the UFC since coming over in February of 2014.
These are two very active fighters on the feet. Where I give the edge to Dariush is finishing ability. If this fight goes to the mat Dariush has legitimate jiu-jitsu on the mat, while also having one punch finishing power in his hands. Magomedov is 19-1 in his career, but has never won via a submission and most of his stoppages come via TKO. This is definitely a possibility in this fight, but I have to give the edge to Dariush because I think his game is evolving more at this point in both of their careers.
Play: Dariush +120
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