It’s been two weeks since the massive show that was UFC 196. I was actually 4/4 heading into the Conor fight that night, including a big win with Tate as the underdog. I did not expect Conor to gas like that in the second round after getting countered so well from Nate. That said, the show did the second highest PPV of all time and I think it actually still sets UFC 200 up huge with Conor heading back to Featherweight.
Anyways, this Mir vs Hunt card in Australia is much smaller and I’m just going to touch on the final 4 fights.
All of the odds below are from BetOnline.ag, which is our top rated sportsbook for betting on MMA. Here’s a full review.
To check out some other sportsbooks that offer odds on these fights check out our best MMA sportsbooks in the right sidebar.
Mark Hunt vs Frank Mir
A couple of veterans of the sport, who still have the ability to stick around at the bottom of the top ten in the heavyweight division will find out who gets finished first in this one. Mir has improved a lot with his striking over the past few fights including a couple KO’s over Bigfoot and Todd Duffee. Even though he’s been KO’d plenty of times in his career, he’s also shown a good ability to avoid finishing punches in his last several fights. He lost decisions to Arlovski and Overeem in the two losses of his last 4 fights, so he actually hasn’t been finished since August of 2013. So all of this talk about Mir having a glass chin, isn’t really based in reality anymore.
If Mir can avoid the power hand of Mark Hunt, I think his improved striking and his grappling can do enough to win this fight. Mark Hunt was also very susceptible to submission losses earlier in his career and although he has been able to avoid them of late, Frank Mir has some very solid submissions for a big man. I just see Mir able to stand with Hunt in this fight and having the ability to go to the ground against the kick boxer when the opportunity presents itself and look for that submission.
Play: Mir +143
Hector Lombard vs Neil Magny
Neil Magny has impressed me a ton lately. He was absolutely destroyed by Demian Maia at UFC 190 last August, but he came back with 2 big decision wins over Erick Silva and Kelvin Gastelum. I’m now convinced that Demian Maia is just next level at jiu-jitsu after watching him do the same thing to Gunnar Nelson. Magny is a very smart and effective fighter, who I think will have another great game plan against Hector Lombard this week.
Lombard hasn’t fought in 15 months after being suspended for testing positive for PED’s. When a guy as jacked as Lombard gets caught you have to wonder if he’d been using the drugs his entire career. What kind of Lombard will we see this week. His wins aren’t even all that impressive to me and I just think he will have his hands full with the length and intelligence of Neil Magny.
Play: Magny -142
Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case
Matthews had a hiccup with his loss to James Vick last May, but he followed that up with a TKO win over Arreola and one of the UFC’s big Australian prospects can get the hype back with a win over Johnny Case, who is 4-0 in the UFC and has not lost an MMA fight since 2010.
I’m expecting a more mature Jake Matthews to come out in this one and find a way to beat the American in his home country of Australia.
Play: Matthews -115
Daniel Kelly vs Antonio Carlos Junior
Kelly is a 38 year old Judo Olympian, who doesn’t look very athletic when you look at him. That said, he came in and absolutely destroyed Steve Montgomery at UFC 193 and he really impressed me. He has now won 3 of 4 UFC fights, with his only blemish a TKO loss to Sam Alvey.
He draws a very tough opponent in Antonio Carlos Junior, but from what I saw against Montgomery, I think Dan Kelly can control this fight with great Judo and wrestling. At these odds I think he’s a great bet.
Play: Kelly +385
Frank Mir • Mark Hunt • ufc betting • UFC Fight Night