After a couple weeks without UFC, the fights are back this Friday with a great Fight Night card. I personally am a big fan of Roy Nelson, so it will be great to see him back in the Octagon as the main event. Clay Guida vs Tatsuya Kawajiri will be another very interesting fight.
I continued my great picks in the UFC this year with another 2 for 2 night at the last UFC Fight Night, picking both Henderson and Dolloway who were each +200 dogs.
2014 Record: 16-6 for +10.60 units.
Roy Nelson vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
5 rounds is a long time for Roy Nelson to be able to try to tee off on another fighter. In his 11 fights in the UFC Roy Nelson has won 6 by knockout or TKO and has lost 5 via decision. I see this 5 round fight as just giving Nelson more time to try to finish off Nogueira. It’s true that 5 of the 6 KO wins by Nelson have come in the first round, but he did knockout Filipovic in the 3rd round which shows he can still generate power later in a fight. He isn’t the most well conditioned fighter so it will be interesting if this fight does go to rounds 4 or 5, but I still think Nelson will have enough in the tank to try to get that knockout blow in the latter rounds. Nelson is on a 2 fight losing streak, but he didn’t bring his best against an underestimated Miocic and nobody expected him to hang with Cormier. He really only loses to the top fighters at heavyweight and I don’t see Nogueira in that echelon.
The same is true the other way for Nogueira. His wins have come over fighters who either don’t deserve to be fighting him or ones in the twilight of their career. I like Nelson to win this one inside the distance. Five rounds is too long to give someone with his knockout power and iron chin.
Take Nelson inside distance -111 @ 5Dimes.
Clay Guida vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
I like Clay Guida in this one. Kawajiri is still relatively unknown in the UFC. He only has one fight, in which he beat fellow UFC newcomer Sean Soriano. I’m always wary betting on the relatively unknown fighters because you don’t know what their competition has been like to this point in their careers. With Guida you know that he can hang with the big boys. He even beat current lightweight champ Anthony Pettis 3 years ago and his recent losses have come against the very best in the UFC (Henderson, Maynard and Mendes). I like Guida as a very small favourite in this one because he could be out of Kawajiri’s league, but it won’t be the other way around.
Take Clay Guida -130 @ BetOnline.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira • Clay Guida • Roy Nelson • Tatsuya Kawajiri