After a week off, the UFC is back with a very solid Fight Night card in Denver, Colorado. The card is headlined by what is surely a top contender fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Julianna Pena, with the winner likely to be next in line to face Amanda Nunes for the belt. Also on the card is a great welterweight fight between Donald Cerrone and Jorge Masvidal, as well as Arlovski vs Ngannou and Caceres vs Knight rounding out the main card. Marquardt vs Alvey and Assuncao vs Sterling are two other great fights that will take place on the prelims.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Julianna Pena vs Valentina Shevchenko
This is a very intriguing fight. Shevchenko opened as a significant favorite with odds of 1.59, but the fight was quickly bet to basically a pick’em and for good reason. Shevchenko is without a doubt the better striker in this match up, but I do not think Pena will allow her to play that striking game. Holly Holm was content to have a striking battle with Shevchenko because that is also her top skill, but Pena will look to get this fight to the mat and smother Shevchenko while doing damage from top position.
If Shevchenko can keep the fight standing she does have the advantage, but I don’t see her being able to keep Pena at distance simply because as well as she strikes she really doesn’t have much finishing ability standing.
As long as Pena doesn’t gas in this 5 round fight, she should be able to apply pressure and outwork Shevchenko against the fence and on the mat to win a decision, while possibly finding a submission to finish the fight early.
Play: Pena -108
Donald Cerrone vs Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal is without a doubt a legitimate top end fighter, who I would argue is the most difficult fight for Cerrone since he moved up to Welterweight. That said, I still don’t see how you can bet against Donald Cerrone here. He is the most consistent fighter in the UFC and he’s now gone 12-1 in his last 13 fights, which includes finishes in each of his welterweight performances.
Cerrone is simply a great athlete and although I do give Masvidal a chance in this fight, Cerrone has more tools with which to win this fight. If Masvidal does somehow get the better of him on the feet, Cerrone has a great takedown and ground game with which to go to. I see several more paths to victory for Cerrone in this fight.
Play: Cerrone -150
Andrei Arlovski vs Francis Ngannou
Ngannou is a massive prospect in the heavyweight division having run through the four fighters the UFC has put in front of him to this point. That said, Andrei Arlovski is a huge step up from the fighters Ngannou has been finishing to this point in his UFC career. Yes, Arlovski is on a three fight losing streak, but these losses were against current champion Stipe Miocic, the last man to get a title shot in Alistair Overeem and heavyweight legend Josh Barnett.
At the odds you currently see for this fight I think you have to take Arlovski based on his experience and the fact that this is a big step up for Ngannou. We don’t really know how Ngannou will fare when he faces this step up in competition.
Play: Arlovski +340
Alex Caceres vs Jason Knight
Jason Knight is a solid prospect, but I am somewhat surprised he’s a favorite in this fight with Bruce Leeroy. Knight has a couple decision wins in his last two fights over no name fighters and we really don’t know how good this kid is at this point.
Caceres on the other hand, just went 5 rounds with Yair Rodriguez and lost a very close split decision. He looked very good in that fight and he also looked very solid in his previous two fights (both wins) against Cole Miller and Masio Fullen.
Caceres has been in the UFC for a long time and fought some very high end fighters. That said, I still think he’s turned a corner of late and understands much more what it takes to get wins in the UFC. I like Caceres in this fight and if he can put together a solid performance perhaps we will see him get a promotional push moving forward in the featherweight division.
Play: Caceres +124