This Saturday we have another great Fox card that includes some very big fights with contenders in a few different divisions. The biggest fight is a welterweight title eliminator fight between Ruthless Robbie Lawler and Matt The Immortal Brown. Brown has been on a tear winning 7 fights in a row, while Lawler has been almost unstoppable and came very close to beating Johny Hendricks for the belt a couple fights back. Dana has said that the winner of this fight will get Hendricks for the belt when he returns, so there is a lot to fight for in this bout.
Some other big fights on the card include Anthony Johnson vs Little Nog and Clay Guida vs Dennis Bermudez. Each of these fights is sure to be filled with action and the winner will move higher up the ladder in their division.
Before getting into my picks for those fights lets look at UFC Fight Night 46 in Ireland. I went 3-0 for the night thanks to taking the favourites in each of the big fights of the night. McGregor looked amazing and Nelson did what he had to do to win. I’m really excited for these guys to get shots at some of the higher ranked fighters in the UFC very soon.
2014 Record: 35-16 for +20.74 units.
Matt Brown vs Robbie Lawler
I think Lawler is going to win this fight, but I’m surprised at how big of a favourite he is. It’s true that Matt Brown hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 10, but he is a crazy finisher with a lot of heart who shouldn’t be overlooked. He has 6 knockout wins over his 7 fight winning streak and he just beat Erick Silva, who was supposed to be an up and comer in the division. That said Lawler is a killer. He has four wins in his 5 UFC fights since moving to welterweight, with the only loss coming to Johny Hendricks in the title fight (and that really could have gone either way). I just think Lawler will be more ready for a highly skilled striker than Matt Brown will be.
That said I don’t like the odds on Lawler to take him straight up. I think Brown could possible end this fight as well. I also noticed that both of these guys do lose via submission on occasion, while neither really gets knocked out so it will be interesting if when one of them feels they are being out fought standing up that they go for a takedown and try for a submission. For thes reasons I’m just taking that this fight will not go the distance.
Take fight to not go the 5 round distance -425 @ 5Dimes.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Anthony Johnson
Little Nog comes back to the Octagon after over a year off and right away is a big underdog against the up and coming Anthony Johnson. I’m a big believer in Johnson and think that he will be fighting for the title in the light heavyweight division before long. That said I don’t really like the props on him to finish the fight. Nogueira is just a very hard man to finish. His losses to Phil Davis and Ryan Bader came via decision and he hasn’t been finished since 2007. I think Nogueira may be being slightly overlooked in this fight. That said I do think Johnson will pull out the victory by decision.
Take Johnson to win via decision +225 @ 5Dimes.
Dennis Bermudez vs Clay Guida
Dennis Bermudez is ready to make a jump up the featherweight ladder. I expect him to be able to weather the storm that is Clay Guida and use his skills to pick apart Guida. It won’t be easy though. Guida only ever loses to top level fighters (Henderson, Maynard and Mendes of late), but he does have trouble with strong opponents and I think Bermudez is just that. He has come a long way from his Ultimate Fighter days and he will prove that he deserves to be moving up the division quickly.
Take Bermudez to win -155 @ 5Dimes.
Anthony Johnson • Clay Guida • dennis bermudez • Little Nog • Matt Brown • Robbie Lawler
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