Our pick from last week crashed and burned in epic Heavyweight fashion. Two lessons to be learned from that:
- Never place bets on unreliable fighters prior to weigh-ins. Later on in the week, information surfaced about Rothwell having a difficult camp and perhaps some injury troubles leading into the fight. I had already placed my bets prior to discovering this, and there was no going back at that point.
- Much of the time, the proverbial juice at Heavyweight simply isn’t worth the squeeze. HW fights tend to be a bit more unpredictable than most for a couple of reasons. Their physical condition means there is less consistency in their performances from fight-to-fight. The punching power of larger men tends to open up the possibility for unforeseen outcomes (think Russow/Duffee). Finally, the skill level of HWs still lag behind the other divisions, leaving more opportunity for a guy like Ben Rothwell to completely whiff on a simple sprawl, putting himself into a guillotine (not that I’m bitter or anything).
So, what sort of route will I take with this weekend’s UFC on Fox 6 card? Essentially, I’m going to get as far away from the Heavyweight division as possible. The card in general doesn’t offer many opportunities to bet on unreliable fighters (save for Quinton Jackson), so the worries about trying to take advantage of early lines before they move too much are minimal.
This Fox card continues the trend of the network being a showcase for lighter divisions (specifically the Lightweight division). For the first time in a big event, the Flyweights will take centre stage as Demetrious Johnson defends his title against John Dodson. The card also features a Lightweight bout pitting Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone together, as well as a 155lb clash between TJ Grant and Matt Wiman. Rounding out the main card are a Featherweight tilt between contenders Erik Koch and Ricardo Lamas, and the “big” draw of the event, Quinton Jackson being brought in for what is purported to be his final UFC bout where the organization hopes he will boost Glover Teixiera’s star.
Odds
Bookmaker.eu has set the following odds for this event: Demetrious Johnson -220 John Dodson +180 5dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event: Johnson wins by Decision -151 Not Johnson by Decision +121Prediction
I have written at length about this fight on my blog, but rather than rehash the same points I have already made, I will summarize them from a bit more of a betting perspective here. Demetrious Johnson has lost two fights and been in one draw. Those blemishes has all come when a larger opponent has been able to take him down and control him (as much as he can be controlled). This was a recurring theme in the Brad Pickett and Dominick Cruz fights. In the first Ian McCall bout, this trend also made an appearance in the third round, as Johnson tired in his first cut to Flyweight. When fighters aren’t able to impose this sort of tactic on Johnson his movement and striking speed befuddles them. Even in his losses he has been the more effective stand-up fighter, landing more significant strikes than his opponent in each of his Zuffa bouts.
In steps John Dodson, who is quite likely the fastest fighter that Johnson has ever faced. In addition to that speed, he possesses superior punching power to the champion. Many point to these factors as the ones that will allow Dodson to become the 2nd Flyweight champion in UFC history, but I disagree. The development in Johnson’s striking since he first came into the WEC has been impressive. His use of angles upon entry and exit from striking range makes him very difficult to time and hit. For a fighter like Dodson, who doesn’t throw a high volume of strikes (look to the first round of his bout with Formiga as an example), playing the waiting game and trying to pick a spot to land his left hand just isn’t a winning proposition.
So if Dodson’s style of striking makes it very difficult for him to win, does he have the ability to defeat Johnson as others have in the past? I don’t think so. Dodson has never been a fighter to pursue takedowns. He mixes them into his arsenal from time-to-time, but they aren’t a fight-changing weapon. Plus, even if he did take Johnson down in this fight, he doesn’t have the top position grappling of Cruz, Pickett or McCall which will allow him to control Johnson. Demetrious and John are actually quite similar in that they have excellent scrambling abilities and positional defence. That means the fight is likely to take place primarily in the striking realm, where I have already stated I think Johnson has the advantage.
There are three options for bets using this fight. The most conservative is to simply play Demetrious Johnson straight up, which currently sits at -220. A bit more aggressive would be to pursue Johnson’s most likely path to victory and play him to win via decision at -151. Finally, if there is another fighter on the card you feel confident in (for me it would be Erik Koch, who can be found at -150 on Bookmaker.eu), you could parlay the two to get plus odds (+142 in the Johnson/Koch option). I’m comfortable with all three options, so pick what fits best with your risk tolerance.
Play: Demetrious Johnson to defeat John Dodson @ -220
or
Play: Demetrious Johnson to win by Decision @ -151
or
Play: 2-team Parlay – Demetrious Johnson and Erik Koch @ +142
Demetrious Johnson • John Dodson • UFC on Fox