UFC On Fox: Jacare vs Brunson Main Card Betting Picks

By MMA Fights

The UFC is headed to Charlotte, North Carolina for a UFC on Fox card this Saturday.  Derek Brunson and Jacare Souza renew acquaintances in the main event, in a fight that is very important in the newly interesting and wide open middleweight division.

The card is a UFC on Fox event, which means the main card gets the prime time treatment, getting underway at 8pm EST instead of 10pm.  The early prelims will happen on UFC Fight Pass at 4pm EST, while the undercard will take place at 5pm on free tv.

All of the odds are taken from BetOnline.ag, our top rated betting site for MMA.  Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.

Ronaldo Souza vs Derek Brunson

This is a great fight between a legend in Jacare Souza and a fighter who is still seemingly on the road to a title shot in Derek Brunson.  These two fought way back in 2012 in a Strikeforce tilt that saw Jacare knockout Brunson very early in the fight, before Brunson had even landed a punch.

Souza was a great fighter, and still is, but we cannot discount the fact that he is now 38 years old.  He’s coming off a loss to Robert Whittaker where he was absolutely outclassed on the feet before getting knocked out.  His two previous wins were impressive first round finishes, but Tim Boetsch and Vitor Belfort are not exactly at the division at this point in time.  Before those fights Souza lost a razor close split decision to Yoel Romero in a fight that could have gone either way.  With that said, you would have to look back to his 2014 win over Gegard Mousasi as his last win over a top level opponent.

On the flip side, Brunson is coming off a dominant KO of Lyoto Machida, and also a quick KO of Dan Kelly, who can pose problems to people without the KO weapons of Derek Brunson.  That said, Brunson did also have two L’s in his previous fights, with a knockout loss to Robert Whittaker and a decision loss to Silva which most agree he won.  The loss to Whittaker was a simple case of Brunson being overly confident and coming forward with his chin up.  This type of in your face striking had worked his previous 4 fights, all first round KO’s, but against a technical striker like Whittaker, who is now the champ, it was a horrible strategy.  In the fight with Silva, Brunson seemed to care a lot more about defense, but this resulted in him being a bit gun shy and not pulling the trigger enough against the Brazilian legend.  He fixed those issues in the last two fights and I think the fact he was able to KO Lyoto Machida, a great karate counterstriker who is also a legend, really gives me confidence in Brunson’s progression as a fighter.

I give Brunson a big advantage on the feet and I do not see Jacare being able to get this one to the mat.  Brunson’s wrestling is underrated with not many people realizing he has a 100% takedown defense in his UFC and Strikeforce careers.  That is simply ridiculous and means he should be able to keep this fight standing and impose his will on the feet against Jacare, whose only actual KO (not counting TKO’s) was against Brunson back in 2012.  I don’t see that happening twice, so look for Brunson to pull off the minor upset.

Play: Brunson 2.34

Andre Fili vs Dennis Bermudez

The co-main is an interesting fight between Fili and Bermudez.  Both guys are solid fighters at featherweight who have had some setbacks lately.  Bermudez has lost his last two fights including a split decision loss to Elkins where he was simply outlasted.  Fili is coming off a Lobov, but before that he was outclassed by Calvin Kattar and he’s also just 2-2 in his last four with a knockout loss to Yair Rodriguez also on his record.

I give the edge to Fili on the feet.  Yes, he did not look great standing against Calvin Kattar a couple fights ago, but we saw just how technical Kattar’s striking is in his win over top prospect Shane Burgos this past weekend.  In this tilt I see Fili as the more dangerous striker and also the guy with the better chin considering Bermudez was shut off by both Chan Sung Jung and Jeremy Stephens in the past couple years.

If Bermudez gets too aggressive with the takedown attempts I think Fili will catch him with something flashy and end this fight with a KO.

Play: Fili 2.33

Jordan Rinaldi vs Gregor Gillespie

I don’t know how you could bet against Gregor Gillespie at this point in his career.  The guy has looked absolutely dominant in his 3 UFC fights either man handling his opponents or getting a quick knockout like he did against Andrew Holbrook.

Rinaldi is no slouch who likes to get his wins via submission, but I just don’t think Gillespie will give him any openings in this fight.  His wrestling is too strong and I think he should be able to keep control in all positions in this fight and either get a TKO on the mat or win a dominant 3 round decision.

Play: Gillespie 1.17

Drew Dober vs Frank Camacho

I’m surprised Dober is such a large favorite in this fight.  Sure he got a couple knockouts against Josh Burkman and Jason Gonzalez in his last two wins (with a submission loss to Aubin-Mercier sandwiched in between), but both guys are low level UFC fighters and Josh Burkman in particular is far past his prime.

With Frank Camacho we know what we’re going to get.  A fighter who is going to come forward with a ton of pressure and looking to land power shots.  I just don’t think Drew Dober’s counter striking is at a level where he will catch Camacho coming in and I don’t think he will be active enough to win a decision in this fight.  Dober has only ever landed takedowns in one of his 9 UFC fights, so I don’t expect takedowns to be a big part of his strategy in this one.  These two should bang it out on the feet and Camacho should win based on power, damage and activity.  He will have to avoid the knockout shot, which can happen when he gets overly aggressive, but like I said above, I don’t think Dober’s striking is as good as his past two knockouts may indicate.

Play: Camacho 2.50


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