The Ultimate Fighting Championship makes its 2013 debut, after a successful and spiriting end to their 2012 campaign. The broadcast deal with Fox will find itself squarely in the spotlight once again, as the first two events of the year will be featured on FX and Fox, respectively. Before the main course that is the sure-to-be action packed UFC on Fox 6 arrives, we’ll be treated to a little appetizer this Saturday as Sao Paulo hosts its first UFC event since 1998.
With all of the evolution in MMA over those 15 years, it’s amazing that one fighter on the Ultimate Brazil card is also not only fighting, but headlining, this event. That man is of course Vitor Belfort, who still possesses many of the same weapons that he had early in his career, but a wealth of extra experience. The longest tenured Brazilian fighter in the UFC finds himself up against the biggest star the organization has produced from the other side of the Atlantic, in Michael Bisping. The Brit finds himself one win away from a title shot after 18 fights and nearly 7 years inside the Octagon.
The bout between Belfort and Bisping is an intriguing style clash in the sense that both have very clear paths to victory. Belfort can land a shot on Bisping, as so many other fighters have done, and get an early stoppage with his power and ability to swarm a hurt opponent. If that doesn’t happen, Bisping will likely wear Vitor out and stop him in the latter stages of their 5-rounder. My lean is towards Bisping, based on the way that he has improved his wrestling and seems to be getting hit less frequently in the past. He also has learned to compose himself better after getting caught. After using TRT to jump up to 205 pounds to fight Jon Jones, and quickly coming back down to 185, there have to be questions about Belfort’s cardio as well. At this point, I am not confident enough in Bisping to place money on him, but it is tempting. There do seem to be some other opportunities on the card however.
Odds
5dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event:
Ben Rothwell -105
Gabriel Gonzaga -115
Prediction
The Heavyweight main card bout between Ben Rothwell and Gabriel Gonzaga interests me greatly from a betting perspective. To me, Gonzaga presents himself as a fighter well past his expiry date. His UFC career mark is 8-5, with the only impressive win in the bunch being the memorable one over Mirko CroCop back in 2007. Since then, his victories have come over Justin McCully, Josh Hendricks, Chris Tuchscherer and Edinaldo Oliveira. Hardly a murderer’s row. His success often seems to stem from being physically superior to his opponents, and allowing that to implement his gameplan. That and fighting really poor opposition. Against Rothwell, I simply don’t see him having that type of vast physical advantage, and Ben is a quality fighter. Rothwell is a better wrestler than Gonzaga, hits harder than him, and is very tough to finish. Given Gonzaga’s history of less than stellar staying power in fights, coupled with some surprising improvements shown by Rothwell in his last fight, I like the former IFL champ here. In a fight that the oddsmakers see as a pick em, I favour Rothwell rather heavily, and think he warrants a bet.
Play: Ben Rothwell to defeat Gabriel Gonzaga @ -105
ben rothwell • gabriel gonzaga • michael bisping • ufc on fx 7 • vitor belfort