After a week away from the spotlight after UFC 216, the UFC is back in our lives this Saturday with an overseas card taking place in Gdansk, Poland. The card is headlined by Donald Cerrone vs Darren Till, with the main card getting underway at 3pm EST here in the Eastern Time Zone of North America. The prelims start at 11:30 in the morning and you can catch the 8 preliminary fights on Fight Pass.
I will give my picks for each of the four main card fights below. I’m using the odds from BetOnline.ag, our top rated betting site, for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Donald Cerrone vs Darren Till
Many people are down on Donald Cerrone after he’s lost two fights in a row, but both of those losses came to top fighters in the welterweight division in Jorge Masvidal and Robbie Lawler. I bet Cerrone in the recent Lawler fight and even though he didn’t get the win he looked solid. Lawler took round 2 off, throwing hardly any strikes while circling away the entire time and went hard in rounds 1 and 3, and the strategy paid off for him. That said, those rounds were very close (Cerrone landed a takedown with 2 passes in round 1, and actually outstruck Lawler in round 3), but Lawler’s ferociousness when he decides to move forward for a round still tends to sway the judges.
What I’m trying to say is that Cerrone is still a huge talent and I advise you not to sleep on this guy. He still had 4 impressive wins in a row at welterweight in 2016, and consistently dominates guys who are not at the very top of the division.
Darren Till is a guy who is a very solid striker, but this is a massive step up in competition for him, and I just don’t see his style working very well against Cowboy. Till has the reputation of a power puncher, but he wasn’t able to finish Ayari or Velickovic in his last two fights. He’s also not the most active guy on the feet and I think Cerrone will be pushing the pace in this one and putting down a nice pace on Till. I’m not sure if the 5 rounds will affect Cerrone’s pace, but from what I’ve seen from him, he’s in ridiculously good shape and he should be able to dictate the pace of this fight and pull Till into the deep water if he doesn’t get an early finish.
Add in Cowboy’s underrated ground game and I really think he has a huge advantage everywhere in this fight. Cowboy has some trouble against guys who get in his face and don’t let him get his flow going with his kick boxing. Till is not that guy. He stays at range and tries to pick opponents off with strikes of his own and I just see Cowboy getting the better of him if this is the way the fight is going to play out.
I will be having a lot of action on Cowboy this Saturday.
Play: Cerrone -150
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jodie Esquibel
Kowalkiewicz is coming off of two losses and this looks like she is being served up an easy win by the UFC. Jodie Esquibel is a stand up fighter, and not a particularly good one. She was a boxer before moving to MMA, but she was a .500 boxer and I still fully expect Kowalkiewicz to have a big advantage on the feet.
Esquibel has losses to Alex Chambers and Ashley Yoder (last year), which is almost saying enough to know that she is not on nearly the same level as Kowalkiewicz. She also was completely outclassed by Alexa Grasso, who in my eyes is like a poor man’s version of what Kowalkiewicz is right now.
I expect Karolina to tune up Esquibel in a dominant fashion. I don’t really expect a finish, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kowalkiewicz actually took this fight to the mat at some point and worked for a submission, especially if she rocks Esquibel. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if she picked her apart for 15 minutes either.
Play: Kowalkiewicz -419
Devin Clark vs Jan Blachowicz
This is a very tough fight to call, but I’m going with the hometown boy from Poland, Jan Blachowicz. He’s had a rough go of late in the UFC, going 1-4 over his last 5 fights, but these fights were against some solid competition in Manuwa, Corey Anderson, Gustafsson and Cummins. He does have a dominant win over Igor Pokrajac sandwiched in there as well, so he does still have the ability to win fights.
This fight will come down to whether or not Devin Clark can get this fight to the mat. Blachowicz was taken down 3 times by Patrick Cummins, and 4 times by Alexander Gustafsson and 4 times by Corey Anderson four fights ago, but these are three of the best wrestlers in the light heavyweight division and I think it makes it seem like Blachowicz has worse takedown defense that he truly does.
I actually think he will be able to keep this fight standing for the most part (maybe one takedown for Clark) and I give the edge to Blachowicz on the feet. Clark was KO’d by Alex Nicholson in his UFC debut, so he does have issues with his chin and Blachowicz throws hard. We could see a finish here if this fight stays standing.
The home crowd, underrated takedown defense and powerful hands makes me lean towards Blachowicz in this fight.
Play: Blachowicz +130
Jonathan Wilson vs Oskar Piechota
I’m going with the hometown guy again in this fight. I actually don’t know a ton about Piechota, but he’s actually be fighting some decent guys in Europe and he’s been absolutely destroying everyone in the first couple rounds.
Wilson is a guy who is going to stand with Piechota and I don’t think that’s a great strategy for the American. Wilson won his UFC debut over Chris Dempsey, who has shown he’s not much more than a punching bag (4 knockout losses in last 5 fights), and then he was knocked out by Henrique da Silva (lost his last four fights) and thoroughly outclassed by Ion Cutelaba. Even before the UFC, Wilson was fighting cans on the regional scene, so he actually has no big wins in his career.
There is always a punchers chance that Wilson lands something, but I expect Piechota to be the far superior fighter, and I think the UFC set this up to get Piechota a win in front of his home fans in his UFC debut.
Play: Piechota -185