It’s been a couple weeks since the last UFC Fight Night event that showcased Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler in a title eliminator fight. Lawler took that win in that fight via a decision and will now get a rematch with Johny Hendricks for the Welterweight title. With these two big finishers fighting in a 5 round fight, it was very surprising that the fight went the distance and I personally lost a decent chunk on that wager. In the other big fight Anthony Johnson absolutely destroyed Nogueira. I had Johnson via decision, so I also lost that bet, but I was able to win a bit back by backing Dennis Bermudez to win his fight against Clay Guida.
2014 Record: 36-18 for +16.49 units.
This upcoming card isn’t as strong in my opinion as that last Fight Night card, but the Bader vs Saint Preux fight is interesting and will affect the rankings in the light heavyweight division. The other two fights that will have some affect on the rankings in their divisions are Gray Maynard vs Ross Pearson at Lightweight and Tim Boetsch vs Brad Tavares at middleweight.
Ryan Bader vs Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Bader is currently ranked #8, while Saint Preux is ranked #10. The winner this fight will likely move up the rankings and get a shot at one of the top opponents at light heavyweight. Bader is a small favourite in this fight and rightfully so because he has more experience against the top UFC fighters in the division. In fact his only losses have really been to big names in the UFC such as Glover Teixeira, Lyoto Machida and Jon Jones. He did also lose to Tito Ortiz in 2011, which is a bit of a stain on the resume considering this was Ortiz’s only win out of his final 9 UFC fights. Bader’s wins haven’t been over too strong of opponents either, so it seems like when he gets up the ladder he can’t make that jump.
Saint Preux is a much different story. He has won his last 5 fights, but they are also over lesser known UFC fighters. He did just beat Ryan Jimmo in June fairly easily and his athleticism really makes him a threat every time out. His only loss in the past 4 years came against Gegard Mousasi who has really proven himself as a legitimate fighter and is now ranked #7 in the UFC at middleweight.
I think Saint Preux’s athleticism and his new found finishing ability will win out in this fight. Bader has never lost by decision and I think he will still be very active in the Octagon. That said the odds aren’t much better to take St. Preux inside distance over by 5 round decision. For this reason I’m just taking St. Preux to win the fight outright.
Take St. Preux to win +145 @ 5Dimes.
Ross Pearson vs Gray Maynard
It’s pretty much accepted across MMA fans and experts that Ross Pearson was robbed in his loss to Diego Sanchez on June 7th. He will now get a chance to register a win against a top 15 ranked opponent in Gray Maynard. Pearson has shown a lot of improvements over his past few fights and I like his chances against Maynard in this one. Maynard has continued to fight high ranking opponents, but his last couple of fights have not gone has planned with Maynard losing to both TJ Grant and Nate Diaz via knockout in his two outings in 2013. Before that he pulled off a split decision win over Clay Guida after losing his rematch to Frankie Edgar via KO after them fighting to a draw. Needless to say Maynard has been in a downward trend and Ross Pearson is another very difficult fight for him.
Take Pearson to win -125
Tim Boetsch vs Brad Tavares
Tim Boetsch has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, but these losses have come to some very strong opponents such as Luke Rockhold #5, Mark Munoz #13 and Costas Phillipou #10. His one win in this span was a split decision victory over CB Dolloway #9. Boetsch is currently ranked #14 in the division, but as you can see he has continued to fight the who’s who of the light heavyweight division. Before these four wins Boetsch had beaten Hector Lombard and Yushin Okami, a couple of very strong fighters.
Brad Tavares is coming off a loss, but before that he was looking promising on a 5 fight winning streak. That said he has never fought a ranked fighter and it’s surprising to see that he is the favourite in this fight.
Take Boetsch +225
Brad Tavares • Gray Maynard • Ovince Saint Preux • Ross Pearson • Ryan Bader • Tim Boetsch • UFC Fight Night
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