The UFC sees two returns taking place this Saturday night. UFC 154 marks the company’s first visit to ‘La Belle Province’ since December 2010. More importantly to both the organization and fight fans, Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre returns from a torn ACL and subsequent 19-month absence to defend his belt against Interim Champion Carlos Condit, in what is loosely being termed a unification bout.
Since St-Pierre last fought, the MMA landscape has changed drastically. To give you a small piece of perspective on the issue, consider this: in the PPV event prior to St-Pierre’s last fight, Jon Jones had only just become the Light Heavyweight Champion of the UFC. Jones has defended the belt four times since that point, and has essentially usurped St-Pierre’s standing in the Pound-for-Pound rankings, as well as in the most fervent talk of a ‘Superfight’ with Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. This event marks the Canadian’s opportunity to firmly entrench himself back among the top 3 fighters in the world.
For Condit’s part, he is looking to prove that his win over Nick Diaz was more than just a clever gameplan and solid execution. Until he beats St-Pierre, nobody is particularly eager to anoint Condit as the Welterweight Champion, so this is his opportunity to prove that he is the best fighter at 170lbs on the planet, and not just a placeholder while Georges was injured.
While the fight itself is very intriguing, it actually poses too many questions (mostly surrounding St-Pierre’s health) for me to feel comfortable backing either side as a major play, so instead let’s take a look at some bets that are more worthwhile.
Odds
5dimes.eu has set the following odds for UFC 154.
Money Line
Chad Griggs +115
Cyrille Diabate -135
Darren Elkins -110
Steven Siler -110
Predictions
Cyrille Diabate is certainly not the most well-rounded MMA fighter out there, but if you’ve seen Chad Griggs fight before, you’ll know that doesn’t really matter. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the three bullet-points the UFC uses to describe Griggs being “Durable, Aggressive, Never Been to Decision”. As every MMA fan knows, that essentially means that he’s just not a skilled fighter, and if I’m being honest, he’s not. This is a man who was thoroughly dominated by Bobby Lashley and his muscle suit, before the oxygen supply ran out and Griggs went on to beat a zombified version of Lashley. The two losses suffered by Griggs have both been by submission, and while the first was forgivable being so early in his career, his grappling against Travis Browne was laughably bad, and something that nearly anyone in the UFC at this point in time should be able to take advantage of.
Going against Diabate, you need to have a grappling advantage, as very few fighters will be able to strike with the lanky Frenchman. The only TKO loss ever suffered by ‘The Snake’ was at the hands of Mauricio Rua. Diabate has even picked up the grappling game to a degree, as he has notched 5 submissions among his 18 wins. This spells a long night for Griggs, as he is outmatched no matter where this fight takes place. As a result, I’m not exactly sure how Diabate will win, as it could be any of the 3 methods, but when the odds on a straight bet are this low, there’s no reason to go out on a limb and get too specific.
Aside from using a nickname other than ‘Scuba’, Steven Siler has done no wrong in his stint as a UFC Featherweight. He is quickly becoming one of the most underrated 145lb fighters in the organization, and is improving at a rapid pace that nobody anticipated prior to, or during, his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. His newfound striking prowess was especially apparent in his win over Cole Miller, and he followed that up by reminding us all that his grappling game is equally as lethal, making quick work of Joey Gambino.
Against Elkins, who has a wrestling background, toughness, and not a whole lot else, Siler should be able to put his skills to good use. While standing, he will win the exchanges that nearly everyone facing Elkins has been able to, and if Elkins gets the fight to the ground he should be able to threaten with submissions or at the very least get back to his feet. As shown in his last fight against Diego Brandao, Elkins is not an easy out. Siler however has vastly better cardio than his Ultimate Fighter peer, and won’t fade in the later rounds, allowing Elkins to outwork him for a decision.
Plays
Cyrille Diabate defeats Chad Griggs @ -135 (5Dimes.eu)
Steven Siler defeats Darren Elkins @ -110 (5Dimes.eu)
After a pretty shocking result last week, winning two fights which the oddsmakers see as coin flips will be a nice way to rebound.
Written by: Brad Taschuk
Cyrille Diabate • Steven Siler • UFC 154 • Undercard