UFC 169 went basically as expected with both Barao and Aldo keeping their belts in fairly convincing fashion. I had Faber as a dog in his fight, but that was over pretty quickly. Luckily Aldo won and Overeem won within the distance for me to make bank on the night.
2014 Record: 6-2 for +4 units.
Next Wednesday is the next UFC event, with Fight Night 36 coming to Fox Sports 1. It’s not the most interesting card ever, but Machida is trying to work his way up the Middleweight rankings after dropping down and defeating Mark Munoz with a devastating head kick last October. A win here against Mousasi should put Machida right in the mix for a title shot in this division, while an upset could be huge for Mousasi’s career. The other middleweight fight on the card is also very interesting with Ronaldo Souza, who is actually ahead of Machida according to the UFC rankings (#3 vs #4) taking on Francis Carmont who is penciled in at #8 on those rankings.
Lyoto Machida vs Gegard Mousasi
As I mentioned earlier Machida just dropped down to middleweight even though he was still having a strong run in the light heavyweight division. Having already lost to Jon Jones fairly convincingly though at UFC 140 and then losing a controversial decision to Phil Davis (Machida did beat Bader and Dan Henderson in between these fights) Machida probably thought he would have a better chance at winning UFC gold at the middleweight division. He dropped down and destroyed Mark Munoz who had been climbing up the division. Mousasi has won 4 fights in a row and would have 7 wins in a row if not for his draw with Keith Jardine due to an illegal upkick that deducted a point. That said of these fights only 1 was in the UFC (defeating Latifi), while three were in Strikeforce and three were in Dream. If we go back very far though you will find some big wins for Mousasi in his career. He defeated both Mark Hunt (submission) and Ronaldo Souza (KO) around 4 years ago which shows he has the ability to hang with some top quality fighters that have proven themselves in the UFC.
It’s likely because of these wins that the oddsmakers don’t see Machida as that massive of a favourite. He is listed at only -255 at 5Dimes, while Mousasi is +215. I personally like Machida in this one though. After fighting several lower level fighters Mousasi will have to go up against one of the best in the UFC and it may be too big of a jump too soon for him. Both Hunt and Souza have improved dramatically since 2008-2009 and Machida is still the biggest name of the bunch. Machida’s all around skill should get him through this fight, but it will be interesting against a relative unknown with huge upside.
Take Lyoto Machida -250
Francis Carmont vs Ronaldo Souza
As I mentioned before Souza is ranked #3 according to UFC at Middleweight and has some big wins over Yushin Okami (TKO) and Chris Camozzi (arm-triangle) in his last two fights. Souza has the pleasure of being the man to get Okami cut from the UFC even though Okami had won 3 fights heading into his bout with Souza. One great thing about Souza is his ability to finish fights. He is currently on a 5 fight winning streak and has won 3 by submissions and 2 by knockouts.
This is a huge fight for Francis Carmont. The guy just keeps on winning, but he was never given a very top opponent until now. Carmont is currently riding an 11 fight winning streak including winning his first 6 fights in the UFC. He beat Chris Camozzi in his first UFC fight, but since then he hasn’t really been given many quality opponents. Carmont has had his last three fights go to decision and if he can avoid getting knocked out or submitted by Souza I think he could be the busier fighter and win the fight.
The oddsmakers have Souza as a very big favourite (-430), but I like Carmont’s chances in this one. A lot of Souza’s accolades fall on his one knockout victory over Yushin Okami and I don’t think that’s enough to consider him such a huge favourite over Carmont. The guy just knows how to win and that’s why I’m taking Carmont as a dog in this one. I think he will surprise a few people.
Take Francis Carmont +350
Fight Night • Francis Carmont • Gegard Mousasi • lyoto machida • Ronaldo Souza • ufc