First off I have to talk about the Dillashaw vs Cruz fight from the last UFC event. It was everything I had hoped it would be. A back and forth technical fight, and just as I expected, Cruz got the win thanks to a razor close decision. I’m a big Dominick Cruz fan. I just like the way he fights and I find it very interesting and not boring like I know some fans find him due to his lack of real finishing power. I think he will be the champion for as long as he stays healthy once again. In the other fights on that card I lost with my Pettis and Mitrione picks, but was able to finish 2-2 on the main card thanks to the win by Trinaldo.
This week we have a fairly stacked card for a UFC on Fox card without a title shot. The main event between Anthony Johnson and Ryan Bader is definitely a title eliminator fight, which is almost as interesting to me as title fights. The winner will almost surely fight the winner of the DC vs Jon Jones title fight in the Light Heavyweight Division. The other huge fight on this card is Josh Barnett vs Ben Rothwell at heavyweight, while Alcantara vs Rivera and Northcutt vs Barberena round out the main card.
DraftKings.com also has a $45,000 guaranteed contest with a $3 buy-in for this card, and if you can afford it they are having a huge $50k guaranteed contest with a $100 entry to go along with their January Jam promotion. If you haven’t played fantasy MMA at DraftKings.com yet you’re missing out.
Anthony Johnson vs Ryan Bader
What does Ryan Bader need to do to earn a title shot? He’s riding a 5 fight winning streak that includes wins over Ovince St. Preux (ranked #6), Phil Davis (a top light heavyweight) and Rashad Evans (ranked #5). Those wins would normally be enough for a contender to earn a title shot, but because of Bader’s wrestling style and lack of finishes he has to fight one more guy before he gets that shot. Enter Anthony Johnson.
Johnson is an absolute beast and possibly the most dangerous fighter in the UFC in terms of knockout power. He recently lost his title fight with Daniel Cormier, but followed that up with a knockout win over Jimi Manuwa to catapult back into the title discussion. He also has devastating knockout wins over Alexander Gustafsson and Big Nog in recent history, which is exactly the type of thing the UFC likes to promote.
Anthony Johnson is a big favourite in this fight, but I see Bader as a very difficult opponent for Johnson. Bader will push the action and try to drag Johnson into the later rounds when fatigue will be a factor and Johnson won’t have as much power behind his punches. If Bader can stay alive until the 3rd round I think this is a very winnable fight for the wrestler. If this was a 3 round fight I would give the nod to Johnson every time, but because this is a longer fight I could see Bader just trying to survive early before putting the pressure on Johnson and winning the final 3 rounds to take this fight. Based on the odds I think taking Bader to win is a smart bet with decent upside.
Play: Bader 3.60 @ BetOnline.ag
Josh Barnett vs Ben Rothwell
I was surprised to see Ben Rothwell as the underdog heading into this fight. He’s looked great in his last few fights, but he continues to not get the respect he deserves. Finishes over Brandon Vera, Alistair Overeem and Matt Mitrione in his last 3 fights should have him right on the verge of a title shot. He’s a complete martial artist who is more athletic than he looks. I think he will actually be the more athletic fighter against a Josh Barnett who is now off the sauce.
Barnett looked good in his last fight against Roy Nelson, but Nelson is basically just a punching bag for the high end guys in the division. That’s his fight in the past 2 years since his KO loss to Travis Browne.
Rothwell just seems to have taken his game to a new level now that he owns his own gym and runs an MMA team. He has more to fight for and it has shown in his last couple outings. I’m expecting another big win for Rothwell on Saturday. Don’t be surprised this time.
Play: Rothwell 2.12 @ BetOnline.ag
Iuri Alcantara vs Jimmie Rivera
Alcantara is a big jump in competition for Jimmie Rivera, but the New Jersey prospect has looked very good in his UFC career so far and deserved this bump in competition in front of a home crowd. I expect Rivera to be able to bully Alcantara in this fight, while finding a way to either land one of his big bombs and finish or grind out a decision. I don’t see many ways that Alcantara can win this fight.
Play: Rivera 1.62 @ BetOnline.ag
Sage Northcutt vs Bryan Barberena
Sage the new UFC poster prospect gets right back into the octagon as a 19 year old. His original opponent, Andrew Holbrook, had to drop out of the fight so the UFC has brought in Bryan Barberena to fight on 2 weeks notice. Barberena is coming off a decision loss to Chad Laprise in a tight fight at UFC 196, but the 26 year old does have a lot of power in his hands, with 8 of his 10 wins coming from TKO’s or knockouts from punches.
Barberena is probably the most dangerous opponent Sage has fought in his career, but I don’t see how you bet against the kid. He’s just so athletic and improving with every fight. The UFC has an interest in him continuing to win his fights, so I think they will have a pretty good idea that he should be able to take Barberena in this one.
Play: Northcutt 1.22 @ BetOnline.ag
Anthony Johnson • Ryan Bader • ufc betting • UFC on Fox