The upcoming Diaz vs Silva super fight is sure to bring in a lot of money to the UFC, but it’s become somewhat rare that the UFC hosts a PPV card without at least 1 Title Fight on the line, but the huge draws that come with both Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz have made UFC 183 a somewhat weak PPV in my opinion. I get that people want to see this Silva vs Diaz fight, but in the big picture the fight really shouldn’t have that much impact on the actual UFC landscape. Instead it should just be a fun fight for the fans. If a Silva win gets him another title shot against Weidman right away, I for one will be disappointed.
Last week’s UFC Fight Night card in Sweden, did not go as I had expected. I only won 1 of my 3 bets, that being the Mousasi win over Henderson. Davis’ performance was almost embarrassing as he did not impose his will at all and lost via split decision to Ryan Bader in a very uneventful fight. Then we all know what happened to Gus in the finals. I’m super excited for the Jon Jones vs Anthony Johnson fight now. AJ’s power is a massive threat to Jones.
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 3-5 for -4.00 units.
Nick Diaz vs Anderson Silva
I’m excited to see this fight, but maybe not as much as most fans because I see it as quite a bit of a gimmick. I guess it’s a good fight for Silva to come to. It’s a big draw against a guy who really doesn’t want to fight anymore in Nick Diaz, but is willing to fight Silva for the big pay day. I expect that exact mentality to show through in the fight. Don’t get me wrong, I think Diaz will come out with all the grit, toughness, endurance and pressure that we’ve come to expect from the Stockton native, but I don’t think he actually believes he’s going to win this fight. He took the fight for the big pay day without a real desire to get back in the Welterweight Title picture. That’s likely why he was so cool with this fight being at Middleweight. He’s just going to go in there push the pace, but eventually get beat up by the bigger, better fighter.
I expect Silva to win this fight easily, but I’m not sure exactly how he’ll end up finishing it. I do expect him to find a way to stop Diaz before the 5 rounds are up though.
My Pick: Silva Inside Distance -135 @ 5Dimes.eu
Tyron Woodley vs Kelvin Gastelum
The UFC is promoting this fight as Gastelum being the big underdog in yet another fight. The bookies see it differently though and rightfully so in my opinion. Gastelum is just a winner. He’s won 4 straight fights since beating Urijah Hall and he looks like he just keeps getting better. Tyron Woodley has the power to potentially finish Kevlin, but I actually think Gastelum has more tools in his arsenal heading into this fight.
I’m a little wary taking Gastelum as a favourite, but I believe in the guy and think Woodley is more of a gate keeper in the Welterweight division these days.
My Pick: Gastelum -117 @ PinnacleSports.com
Joe Lauzon vs Al Iaquinta
The other big fight on the main card is Joe Lauzon vs Al Iaquinta. Once again the UFC is touting Iaquinta as the underdog heading into this fight, but the bettors are taking the young gun much more than the veteran Lauzon. In this case though I think experience will trump youth and power.
Lauzon just beat Michael Chiesa, who actually won Iaquinta’s season of TUF, beating him in the finals. It’s been 2 and a half years since that loss for Iaquinta and he’s won 5 of 6 fights since then, but his only really notable win came over Ross Pearson in November. Iaquinta looked great in that fight, but I’m not sure how he will stack up against a man as tough as Joe Lauzon. Iaquinta has lost via submission in his 3 pro losses and Lauzon is a submission expert.
I’m not confident enough that Lauzon finishes the fight via submission, but I still think Joe takes it in some fashion.
My Pick: Lauzon +165 @ 5Dimes.eu
Check back later in the week for my prelim bets.